A few days ago we would have fancied Bangladesh to beat England on home soil in their favoured conditions. That's no longer the case now and the best bet may be to side with Ian Bell to shine, says Ed Hawkins.
Team news
It is difficult not to feel sorry for England. They have produced tremendous entertainment through a mixture of brilliant and schoolboy cricket despite being totally ravaged by physical and mental fatigue. Their campaign looks doomed.
Kevin Pietersen and Stuart Broad, two of their best players, are out of the tournament. Eoin Morgan, who is without match practice, comes in while Christ Tremlett is a like-for-like replacement with the ball for Broad. Ian Bell is expected to open in KP's absence.
Bangladesh skip Shakib Al-Hasan hinted his side may be unchanged after last week's harrowing loss to West Indies. But it would be no surprise if Mohammad Ashraful gave way to Mahmudullah.
Venue and conditions
There have been only nine games played at Zahur Ahmed Chowdhury stadium in Chittagong. And the good news for England, if they worry about getting strangled batting second in a chase, is that six have been won by the side fielding first.
Ian Ward, the Sky Sports pundit and who is very close to the England team, called the surface a bowler's graveyard. That isn't backed up by a first-innings average of 202 and there have been some very low scores - 44 by Zimbabwe v Bangladesh 2009, for example. England made 284-5 batting first there in 2010, though and if they get first use make sure you should check prices or 275 or more.
Match odds
We lost faith in Bangladesh when they were bowled out for 58 against West Indies and had we been in Dhaka, we'd have thrown stones, too.
Although we'd have hit the right team bus. Shakib has promised it won't happen again (the performance). But he hasn't promised victory. Bangladesh, who beat England in Bristol last year, are 4.90 and that is too short for a side unable to cope with the pressure from a whole nation. We want 6.00 to consider backing them. Yes, England are vulnerable after injuries and yes they are vulnerable to the army of
spinners, but the price just isn't right. Sorry.
spinners, but the price just isn't right. Sorry.
Top batsman - Bangladesh
Tamim Iqbal, Bangladesh fav at 4.00, made a duck when the sides last met on this ground. Shakib, at 6.00, may be a better wager.
Top batsman - England
We like the look off the openers Andrew Strauss and Bell. Strauss, at 4.00 and Bell at5.00 could set the tone. Morgan, who made a fine ton in Dhaka against the opposition last March, is 7.00.
Featured market
If the wicket is a road and Bangladesh are nervous about another humiliation, then all the ingredients are there for Bell to look a million bucks. He is 2.2 to score a 50.
Best bet: Ian Bell to score 50 at 2.2
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